ACCA全球调查显示：市场信心回升但商业形势依然艰难

Confidence is up - but trading conditions are still tough, ACCA global survey shows

Panic is no longer a major driver of the global economy
恐慌不再是全球经济的推动力


Economic recovery should be possible within the next 18 months, according to a global survey of finance professionals by ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants).
据ACCA（特许公认会计师公会）对全球财务专业人士进行的调查显示，全球经济有望在未来18个月内复苏。

Optimism continued to depend substantially on the actions of national governments, but the reliance on state assistance has dissipated since the Q1 survey and business confidence is now more clearly linked to expectations of future growth. According to ACCA, these are tentative signs that panic is no longer a major driver of the global economy.
市场乐观情绪仍主要源于政府举措，但自第一季度调查以来，对国家援助的依赖已经消失，现在商界的信心明显与未来经济增长的预期挂鈎。ACCA認为这些可能是表明恐慌不再是全球经济的推动力的初步迹象。

The ACCA Global Economic Conditions Survey for the second quarter of 2009 indicates that the loss of business confidence has slowed substantially, coming to a halt in key areas such as the Asia Pacific region and even reversing in key sectors such as small and medium sized enterprises and large financial services firms.
2009年第二季度“ACCA全球经济形势调查”结果显示，对于市场信心的下降速度已大幅放缓，在亚太等重要地区信心亦已不在下降，在中小企业和大型金融服务公司等关键领域甚至出现了回升。

Sixty-four per cent of the finance professionals surveyed said they thought the global economy had bottomed out, twice as many who responded in the first quarter of 2009. More than a third of respondents now expect a recovery within the next 12 months.
在受访的财务专业人士中，有64%认为全球经济已经见底，该数字是2009年第一季度调查时的两倍。目前，有超过三分一的受访者预计经济将在未来12个月内复苏。

However, one in ten still expect the downturn to last three years or longer, and this view is twice as common among public sector accountants.
但仍有十分之一的受访者认为经济疲弱会持续3年或更长时间，持这一观点而任职於公共機构的会计人员的人数是其他领域的两倍。

On a regional basis, Western European finance professionals were more pessimistic about the recovery, while African professionals were most likely to believe conditions were improving, albeit weakly. Respondents from Asia Pacific were more likely to think the worst was behind them and were expecting a speedier recovery.  
按地区来看，西欧国家的财务专业人士对于经济复苏的看法较悲观，而非洲地区的财务专业人士多数认为虽然经济状况改善幅度较小，但仍在不断转好。大部分亚太地区的受访者则认为最坏的时刻已经过去，经济将加快复苏。

Despite this largely positive shift in perceptions, the survey of 546 ACCA members in 77 countries shows that trading conditions improved only marginally in the three months to May 2009. Nearly two thirds (68%) saw revenues fall in their organisation or for their clients and 62% witnessed staff cuts and hiring freezes.
虽然市场预期经济將大幅转向积极，但ACCA对77个国家546位会员的调查显示，在2009年3月至5月这三个月内的贸易状况改善极为有限。有近三分之二（68%）的受访者称其公司或客户出现了收入下降的情況，有62%的受访者表示有裁员和暂停招聘的情况。

There are other areas of concern – more businesses reported problems securing prompt payment. Fewer respondents now expect their organisation’s income to fall in the next quarter, these still outnumber those expecting an increase in income by more than two to one (42% against 18%).
还有其他方面的问题：有更多的企业表示难以碓保客户立即付款。现在预计其公司下一個季度收入會下降的受访者有所减少，但仍是比预计收入將會增加的受访者人数多出两倍以上（42%比18%）。

Finally, the latest survey asked finance professionals to predict what the global economy would look like following the credit crunch. Respondents offered the following:
最后，这调查还要求受访的财务专业人士预测信贷危机之后全球经济的走势，部分观点如下：
·    Stricter and more pervasive regulation, especially of financial institutions
·    更严格、更广泛的监管，特别是针对金融机构的监管
·    Tighter credit conditions
·    信贷进一步收紧
·    Increased efficiency, as organisations look inward for cost savings and more efficient ways of doing business
·    机构内部积极节省开支，并探寻更为有效的经营方式以提高效能
·    Stronger  governance and internal business controls
·    更强的公司治理和内部流程控制力度
·    Consumers expected to become cautious net savers
·    消费者将变得谨慎并致力于储蓄

Dr Steve Priddy, ACCA’s Director of Technical Policy and Research, said: “While there is little evidence of economic recovery, there is renewed confidence and optimism. Our next quarterly survey will look for real changes in trading conditions which support that viewpoint and whether the private sector is backing its confidence by investing in people and capital – or whether public sector finance professionals are right to think that the global economy has some way to go before recovery begins.”

ACCA专业政策与研究总监普里迪（Steve Priddy）博士表示：“虽然现在经济复苏的迹象有限，但市场信心和乐观情绪都有所回升。我们随后的季度调查将关注贸易状况的实际变化是否支持上述观点，私营企业是否在人才和资本投资方面证实他們的信心，以及公共機构的财务專才认为全球经济离复苏仍有一段距离的观点是否正确。”

有关ACCA全球经济形势调查报告，可登录http://www.accaglobal.com/pubs/economy/analysis/acca/technical_papers/Q22009.pdf